Why Does The Global Cotton Production Reduction Support The Reduction Of Inventory Pressure?

According to the USDA’s October global cotton supply and demand forecast report, they expect the total global cotton production in 2023 to be 24.517 million tons. This would be a decrease of 676,000 tons compared to the previous year and an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous month. Additionally, the report predicts a consumption of 25.21 million tons, marking a year-on-year decrease of 338,000 tons. The monthly decrease was 19,000 tons, and the ending inventory was 17.402 million tons, a decrease of 1.156 million tons year-on-year and a decrease of 2.185 million tons from the previous month. The data slightly increased production and lowered consumption again. We can see that the market’s demand expectations and the future replenishment needs of major consuming countries are showing signs of limited development. Uncertain risks for consumers and trade include economic recovery, a downward trend, and trade war escalation. In the long term, with the fermentation of local political conflicts, high inflation, and increasing risks of uncertain prospects, the time and space for the global textile market to usher in a comprehensive recovery will once again encounter obstacles.

The international market’s expectation of a significant reduction in global cotton planting area in the new year has been disappointing. The output has increased slightly from the previous month and also slightly from last year. The adjustment in demand has ranged from “strong recovery” to “moderate recovery” and now to “pessimistic prospects.” "Inventory accumulation continues, and inventory pressure continues to increase. The main reason is caused by the economic shrinkage pressure on the world’s major cotton and textile consumer markets, dominated by Europe and the United States. Since this year, European and American textile clothing has continued to restock. At the same time, there are insufficient textile orders in Southeast Asia, and the light purchases and sales in the mid-and downstream textile markets have made them more cautious in purchasing upstream raw materials. Both purchases and sales were lower than mid-year expectations. On the other hand, new cotton-producing areas are developing rapidly. For example, Brazil and Australia have experienced record-breaking cotton harvests. Not only has their quality been significantly improved, but their prices have also been significantly competitive compared to American cotton.

In the fourth quarter, the fundamental supply and demand pressure is greater than the opportunity. The centralized supply and listing pressure of new cotton during the peak supply season will continue to ferment in the fourth quarter. External macro pressure remains high, and economic weakness drags down consumption expectations, resulting in future inventory pressure in the fourth quarter. There is potential for further increases.

Since this year, commodity market prices have relied more on the external market and the overall trends and rhythms of the macroeconomic and financial markets and have fluctuated synchronously. If there are phased events or significant relaxations in macroeconomics in the future, it will have a negative impact on the market and the commodity market. If there is a big impact on the consumer side and there are signs of easing, there will be little space under the market, and someone will soon release the supply pressure on the market.